DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/01 11:00
Corn, Beans Higher; Wheat Mixed at Midday
Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher, and wheat is
4 cents lower to 1 cent higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 125 points. The dollar index
is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with
crude down $2.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade pushing to new highs
post report with stocks at 1.95 billion bushels vs. 2.25 billion expected and
firmer spread action supporting the buying. The daily export wire will be
watched to see if sales maintain the recent pace with nothing again today and
weekly sales strong at 2.03 million metric tons. Ethanol margins are seeing
pressure from corn rallying while energies are sharply lower. Basis should see
pressure this week with more bushels coming in to town. On the December
contract resistance is the fresh high at $3.85 1/2 with support the 20-day at
Soybean trade is 4 to 5 cents higher with solid buying and spread trade
after stocks came in at 523 million vs. 576 million expected, along with
120,000 metric tons sold to Egypt on the daily wire and further sales expected
with little change in South American weather. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 higher and
oil is 65 to 75 points higher. The ral remains in the lower end of the range
ahead of South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains with
Argentina working to encourage sales while Brazilian farmers have heavily sold
ahead with acres expected to increase. Export offers continue to get tighter in
availability as well with meal driving the product complex while strain on
domestic logistics will increase as shipping pace needs move along at a rapid
pace. Weekly export sales were strong at 2.59 million metric tons with meal at
536,700 and oil at 6,900. The November chart has resistance at the recent high
at 10.46 3/4 with support the 20-day at 10.01.
Wheat trade is 4 cents lower to 1 cent higher with rising Russian values
inducing buying before stocks came in lower than expected at 2.16 billion
bushels, 60 million less than expected, and almost 200 million below last year,
with trade now looking to consolidate vs. the fresh highs. European dryness
will remain in focus along with Plains planting progress. Kansas City is at a
64-cent discount to Chicago with spreads narrowing this a.m., while Minneapolis
is back to a 38 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat drilling progress
should expand across the plains short term with OK moisture for most for now
but follow-up rain lacking overall. Wheat export sales were improved at 523,600
metric tons. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.15
1/2, and support is the 20-day at $4.82.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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