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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/01 11:00

   Corn, Beans Higher; Wheat Mixed at Midday

   Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher, and wheat is 
4 cents lower to 1 cent higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 125 points. The dollar index 
is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with 
crude down $2.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
up $20.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade pushing to new highs 
post report with stocks at 1.95 billion bushels vs. 2.25 billion expected and 
firmer spread action supporting the buying. The daily export wire will be 
watched to see if sales maintain the recent pace with nothing again today and 
weekly sales strong at 2.03 million metric tons. Ethanol margins are seeing 
pressure from corn rallying while energies are sharply lower. Basis should see 
pressure this week with more bushels coming in to town. On the December 
contract resistance is the fresh high at $3.85 1/2 with support the 20-day at 
$3.67 7/8.


   Soybean trade is 4 to 5 cents higher with solid buying and spread trade 
after stocks came in at 523 million vs. 576 million expected, along with 
120,000 metric tons sold to Egypt on the daily wire and further sales expected 
with little change in South American weather. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 higher and 
oil is 65 to 75 points higher. The ral remains in the lower end of the range 
ahead of South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains with 
Argentina working to encourage sales while Brazilian farmers have heavily sold 
ahead with acres expected to increase. Export offers continue to get tighter in 
availability as well with meal driving the product complex while strain on 
domestic logistics will increase as shipping pace needs move along at a rapid 
pace. Weekly export sales were strong at 2.59 million metric tons with meal at 
536,700 and oil at 6,900. The November chart has resistance at the recent high 
at 10.46 3/4 with support the 20-day at 10.01.


   Wheat trade is 4 cents lower to 1 cent higher with rising Russian values 
inducing buying before stocks came in lower than expected at 2.16 billion 
bushels, 60 million less than expected, and almost 200 million below last year, 
with trade now looking to consolidate vs. the fresh highs. European dryness 
will remain in focus along with Plains planting progress. Kansas City is at a 
64-cent discount to Chicago with spreads narrowing this a.m., while Minneapolis 
is back to a 38 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat drilling progress 
should expand across the plains short term with OK moisture for most for now 
but follow-up rain lacking overall. Wheat export sales were improved at 523,600 
metric tons. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.15 
1/2, and support is the 20-day at $4.82.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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