REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- Should farmers and ranchers put their foot on the gas or hit the brakes? It's a question I'm sure many have been pondering lately.

During a recent trip to St. Louis, a car zoomed around me, and I happened to look in my rearview mirror to see another one skidding off the road on two wheels with the other two slamming down after what I'm sure was quite a ride. As I continued down the freeway, it made me think about how farmers and ranchers have been on quite a ride, both good, like the lead car of the race and bad, like the one that nearly crashed.

Cattle producers deal with so much more than managing their animals. They have to know when to accelerate and when to dial it back. The cow herd continues to be the smallest it has been in more than my lifetime. And don't ask how old I am -- it's a really long time, trust me.

The decrease has been mostly due to prolonged weather issues, especially drought in areas known to run large numbers of beef cows. The ongoing question is when will the cow herd have numbers close to what they were even 10 years ago. As of Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. beef cow herd was 27.6 million head. That number was 30.3 million head in 2016, an 8.9% decline over the 10-year period.

The last cattle inventory report showed a slight increase in heifer retention in 2026 over the previous year, but with the historical lows, the question is how many would be needed to really show an impact.

Current cattle prices continue to give producers a reason to sell the heifers they may have previously kept as replacements. So, it's really a foot on the gas and the brakes at the same time and definitely a decision many producers are struggling with.

NUMEROUS CHALLENGES AFFECT PRODUCERS

Along with inventory numbers and market prices, there are issues with meat labeling, challenges with animal disease and pests, stresses about predator attacks on livestock, and concerns of non-farm consumers voting in favor of laws to regulate how animals are raised. So many issues that can affect a producer's bottom line. Some positively and others negatively.

A friend recently shared a post on social media that said, "If you're sad, I recommend buying cattle. You won't have time to be anything but stressed." It certainly is like that when we look at all the traffic signs in front of us.

I'd be missing a big part of the livestock puzzle if I didn't mention inputs and the struggles grain farmers are currently dealing with. When times are good, market prices increase and input costs increase, but when the market prices decrease, the input costs don't seem to follow.

Grain profit margins are razor-thin or not even existent currently. It makes cattle producers concerned over what production will be like if market prices decline. While one side of agriculture can put their foot on the gas, the other side must ease up when the light turns yellow before it shows red.

Regardless of which sector of the agriculture industry you are part of, caution is always necessary. Just like the driver on the St. Louis freeway who swerved to avoid obstacles while the other car skidded off the road, those of us in agriculture must constantly assess when it is time to step on the gas and when it is wiser to hit the brakes. Knowing when to move forward and when to slow down can make all the difference in navigating the challenges and uncertainty of another year.

Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @JennCattleGal

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